ISLAMABAD( N York Times), Pakistan — Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani struggled to muster support on Monday for his government, a day after a major ally quit the ruling coalition, and threw the fate of his ruling Pakistan Peoples Party into question.
Mr. Gilani held talks with Shahbaz Sharif, the chief minister of Punjab Province, officials said. Mr. Sharif is the younger brother of opposition leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, whose support is deemed to be crucial if the government is to survive.
But officials of Mr. Sharif’s party say that they are cautiously watching the political crisis unfold and have not come to a final decision. “We will neither sink the government nor extend them our shoulder,” said Ahsan Iqbal, a legislator belonging to Pakistan Muslim League-N.
Mr. Iqbal said the crisis was of the government’s own making after two coalition partners decided to withdraw at the federal level.
Still, both departing parties, Muttahida Qaumi Movement, or M.Q.M., and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal, remain in coalition with the Pakistan Peoples Party in the Sindh and Baluchistan provincial governments, leading analysts and politicians to speculate that both have left some room to maneuver.
“It seems they have a certain agenda to settle or bargaining to do,” Mr. Iqbal said.
While M.Q.M., which quit the ruling coalition at the federal level on Sunday, has not publicly demanded that Mr. Gilani resign or indicated that it would support a no-confidence vote, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal has increased pressure on the prime minister.
Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haideri, a leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal, which had quit the ruling coalition at the federal level last month, on Monday reiterated his party’s demand that Mr. Gilani resign because he no longer had a majority in the Parliament.
The crisis has led some political analysts to speculate that the situation is grave enough for Mr. Gilani to lose his job.
“Basically, this situation where the government is 12 short of a simple majority in the National Assembly cannot last very long,” said Omar R. Quraishi, the opinion page editor of the Express Tribune, a Karachi-based English daily.
The turmoil in the country poses a dilemma for opposition political parties as well, analysts here say.
At a time when the economy is teetering, public discontent is growing over inflation and a worsening power crisis, and the United States is seeking to expand cooperation in the war against terrorism, no political party seems eager to take the reins of the government.
“At the same time, we cannot be seen as bailing out a deeply unpopular government,” said Mr. Iqbal, the legislator. “We cannot burn our political capital.”
Hasan Askari Rizvi, a leading political and military analyst based in Lahore, seemed to think that Mr. Gilani still had some breathing space.
“I do not see the government of Mr. Gilani collapsing in the next few weeks. I think he still has some opportunity to pull together some support but unless he does that he cannot survive for long,” Mr. Rizvi said. “Only Pakistan Muslim League-N can push forward a no-confidence motion against the prime minister. Till now, it has not shown such signs.”
But even if the crisis does not cause the government to collapse, “The imminent impasse in the political system would mean that the current government cannot last its full term, which ends in 2013,” Mr. Rizvi said.
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The crisis worsened when Muttahida Qaumi Movement announced late Sunday that it was ending its partnership with the Pakistan Peoples Party.