Taliban may be down, but not out: analysts

Arayana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy expert Khadim Hussain describes Taliban retreat as ‘tactical’ move 

Daily Times - PESHAWAR: Pakistan’s unprecedented crackdown on the Taliban may have weakened the group, but it is still a threat to the unpopular US-backed government. 

The stakes are high and Pakistan is being pulled in several directions. 

Washington wants the military to hunt down Afghan Taliban groups crossing over the border to attack US troops in Afghanistan. But Pakistan is already stretched against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has a history of bouncing back and has started to carry out suicide bombings again after a relatively quiet period. 

“It seems to me that this is a tactical retreat and the structure and the militant network still exists,” said Khadim Hussain, a researcher with the private Arayana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy. “There is a relative lull in militant attacks, but there is a question mark about how long this lull will last.” 

The battle is draining Pakistan’s sluggish economy, already battered by chronic power cuts and starved of foreign investment. 

While Pakistani officials are boasting of major successes, Taliban have demonstrated the ability to attack all kinds of targets to destabilise the state. 

“We have shaken them ... they are on the run,” said Fiaz Toru, a top official at the NWFP Home Ministry. 

While Taliban bases were destroyed in a major offensive in South Waziristan and the military said it had flushed members of the group out of Bajaur, officials acknowledge the Taliban often melt away during offensives – sometimes returning to areas taken over by the state. 

They fled the assault in South Waziristan, for instance, and regrouped in other ethnic Pashtun tribal areas such as North Waziristan. It is a familiar pattern. 

The army launched an offensive a year ago to clear Taliban out of Swat. Luckily for the military, the public – angered by the Taliban’s austere version of sharia – started backing the state in the battle. 

But the Swat crackdown also raised concerns he group would simply flee to Mansehra. 

Suspected militants stormed an office of a US-based, Christian aid agency near Mansehra on Wednesday, killing six Pakistani aid workers after singling them out and then bombing the building. 

Deep down, Pakistani officials may not be as confident as their boasts suggest, even in Peshawar. 

“We have made Peshawar comparatively peaceful, but our main concern is now that they may be running sleeper cells in southern and eastern districts of the province,” said a senior security official involved in the anti-Taliban crackdown. 

A new push by the Taliban would renew pressure on President Asif Ali Zardari, who cannot afford new political crises. 

Such a push may not be possible for now. It is widely believed that TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a US drone strike in January. 

Nevertheless, analysts say the Taliban are capable of producing one leader after another. 

Despite ongoing security challenges, Washington expects Pakistan also to go after Afghan Taliban groups who cross the border to attack US forces in Afghanistan. 

Pakistan has arrested the Afghan Taliban number two, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, earning praise from the Americans. But an all-out siege against all Afghan groups would open new fronts and likely cost more Pakistani lives. 

“We can’t afford to do things in a hurry. We have to move at our own pace. While we are consolidating our gains in South Waziristan and Swat, we can’t afford to go to North Waziristan right away,” said a senior security official. reuters