What India Wants From Obama -WSJ

By Paul Beckett http://blogs.wsj.com

U.S. President Barack Obama’s priorities in India appear to be clear: Make deals that create American jobs and convince India that it is now in the same league of close allies as Britain and Japan thanks to the scaling up of the U.S.-India relationship across issues from counter-terrorism to commerce to the governance of global institutions.

Equally vital, is what India wants out of this visit. If India is going to accept the U.S. as its global partner, Mr. Obama needs to satisfy India’s doubts and enthuse the Indian establishment over the prospect of the two nations’ futures being inextricably combined.

Officially, India is maintaining that there is no one major issue on which the success of the visit rests – no “big bang” item as Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said Tuesday.

But there are specific things India wants – and unfortunately the signs don’t look too good that it’ll get them.

One of the main things India wants is enhanced trade ties and the desire to see the civil nuclear pact made fully operational. The U.S. wants that, too, in general.

Specifically, reducing U.S. export controls was identified by several analysts as a top Indian priority so that India can get technology that would boost defense, agriculture, and biotechnology.

But Mr. Obama described lifting export curbs as complicated and difficult in an interview with PTI. Not a good start though Commerce Secretary Gary Locke offered a ray of hope in interviews published this morning.

Then there’s outsourcing, a potentially divisive issue. “First and foremost, India would like a clear statement from the U.S. President that the U.S. would not indulge in protectionism,” says Satish Misra, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “This will ensure a level playing field for all the emerging economies.”

In the current political climate, however, Mr. Obama may be unable to promise much.

An even bigger area of contention will be geopolitics.

Though it is unlikely to be raised publicly, India will be looking for “the opening of a dialogue on a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council,” says Samina Ahmed, project director for South Asia at International Crisis Group.

So far, the U.S. has said only that it thinks India should be a big consideration in any plans for UN reform but that’s far short of what India wants to hear. And Mr. Obama held out little hope of progress, also referring to the issue in the PTI interview as complicated and difficult.

Another of India’s top priorities is “an enhanced strategic partnership which includes greater counter-terrorism cooperation particularly in the Pakistani context and also a role in any regional arrangements with regards to Afghanistan,” says Ms. Ahmed.

The counter-terror cooperation is already underway. But many in New Delhi are very fearful of what happens once the U.S. winds down in Afghanistan, especially over the notion that the U.S. might bend to Pakistan’s desire to see India shut out of the country despite being a major donor.

Suba Chandran, deputy director of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi, says India wants some “space” internationally to show it is capable of being a global player in helping maintain stability and order. It wants that space in Afghanistan and would ideally like to increase its aid dramatically.

So it needs reassurances that the U.S. won’t view India through the prism of either China or Pakistan or, even worse, both. The questions it will ask: Will the U.S. stick up for India in dealing with India’s two most restive neighbors and their aspirations in Central Asia? And will the U.S. stick up for India if it pursues a policy of strategic influence in Southeast Asia, China’s backyard?

“While the U.S./Obama will make positive noises on this, in reality the situation is more complex and appears to be working against India’s interests at least as of now,” says Seema Desai, Asia analyst at Eurasia Group in London.

Mr. Obama so far has just taken the line that he supports India’s rise as a “global power.” But that won’t reassure New Delhi much — it would be astonishing if he had said the opposite.